Are forfeitures of Olympic medals predictable? : A test of the efficiency of the international anti-doping system

Abstract

Modeling national Olympic medal counts has received much attention in recent research. National Olympic medal counts, however, may change after the event as a result of the fight against doping. The author shows for the Olympic Games that took place in Beijing 2008 that ex-post forfeitures of Olympic medals are predictable, at the aggregate level, using standard variables commonly used in earlier research to model national Olympic medal counts. The predictability of forfeitures of Olympic medal casts doubts that the international anti-doping system works efficiently.