An Applied Approach to Attacking Effectiveness in Professional Football

Abstract

With ever growing financial invest in elite (association) football (soccer), it becomes increasingly more important to operate at the highest possible standard. A stable football organisation allows for more long-term success and greater investments. With this, objective and thorough analyses of the work done and future requirements become irreplaceable. This in turn opens the door for the instalment or development of analysis departments and analyst positions within elite football teams. These analysts, usually coming from a scientific background, rely on accurate and reliable data. The quality of the analyses, or analysts for that matter, then depends on the work done and choices made. The current research programme was designed to guide practitioners to effectively analyse and apply the data currently collected in elite football. Because match analysis in football has come a long way since first mentioned in a scientific journal in 1968. From basic notational metrics collected live during matches, through comprehensively studying video footage and having computers take over the collection of match parameters altogether. Currently, no matter whether positional time-motion data, metrics describing all on-the-ball match events or computerised combinations of the two are taken into consideration, the possibilities are seemingly endless. That means, analysts should be aware of the context of the data in order to appropriately interpret the results. Generally speaking, the focus and goals of the analyses should be clear and that is where this research programme started off. In many elite sports, like football, being successful depends on winning. Whether this is a short-term requirement or is treated as a long-term process with potential setbacks anticipated, is a decision made by clubs and directors. On the field, where the coach is responsible and analysts often support decision making, success often depends on scoring goals. Regardless of the fact one wants to score more or concede less than the opponent, at least one goal is required to win. That is why the current research programme acknowledged a goal to be the most decisive event in elite football. With that notion in mind, multiple studies were designed to answer the question of how teams can become more effective in scoring goals. The first study was designed to determine the differences between shots that led to a goal and shots that did not. This was done by studying attempts made from statistically identical locations on the pitch, however with changing situational circumstances (context). It was found that the magnitude of effect of opponent positioning changed for different shooting locations and offensive players. The results showed that the selected contextual factors were not able to explain all variance in shooting outcome, however that they should be kept in mind whilst analysing match events. Generally, since opponent presence and pressure were found to influence some shots, the notion that time (e.g. space) is of importance during an attacking sequence came to light. How and when this space between opposing players came to be, was studied in the second investigation of the current programme. Since (theoretically) balance exists between both teams of eleven players, a perturbation of this balance needs to occur prior to a goal scoring opportunity. Expert observers qualitatively analysed a series of match events between elite teams from ball recovery to the moment of the shot. Specific playing styles or actions were not identified to disturb a team's balance; however, agreement was found for a timepoint approximately five seconds prior to the shot to be most detrimental. Furthermore, experts showed stronger agreements when a sequence led to a goal, although they were unaware of the outcome. This importance of a strong perturbation, highlighted, again, the significance of sufficient space for an attacker to release a threatening shot. Finally, also since the balance was disturbed some time before the shot, there seems to be more at hand during a successful attack than a simply well-executed shot. After validating a low-cost tracking system in the third study, so this could be used in a sub-elite environment with a team willing to share full time-motion and tactical data, the final, fourth, study was designed. Here, physical parameters prior to shooting attempts were compared for different outcomes. It was found that an increased physical output, describing both the covered distance and intensity of movements, and fewer defenders behind the ball related to greater attacking success. Similarly, when defenders had to cover more distance prior to a shot, the chances of conceding a goal increased too. Together with a noteworthy relationship between lower match output and both attacking as well as defensive success, the importance of creating space or covering opponents were highlighted once more. Conclusively, by taking football's most decisive event, a goal, into account, the understanding of how to play more effectively has considerably grown. At the same time, the current research programme showed how analysts could effectively apply commonly collected match data into day-to-day practice. By identifying and acknowledging the context during crucial events, more information towards improved decision making and player profiling may be gathered. Future scientific studies may take this applied approach as a guideline for worthwhile large-scale solutions. With machines capable of learning along the way and taking comprehensive datasets into account, the potential for match analysts is substantial. With science supporting practitioners to answer the questions asked by coached and directors, financial investments in both fields may follow and allow for a bright future.